It's very hard to gauge players this early in spring training and like most of us even the players are just excited to get back to the grind of baseball.  The Yankees won 8-5 over the Phillies to open up their spring schedule and it was definitely exciting to see all of the young minor leaguers get a chance to show their abilities.

Ivan Nova looked good in his debut this afternoon. His velocity was good along with sharp bite on his breaking ball along with excellent command of his curve. Considering that it is only his first start, command of the breaking ball this early is very positive. Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Hunter Pence hit a wind aided homerun in the second but that isn't of any significance.  Ivan Nova is not a pitcher that surrenders many long balls and from the early looks of his stuff, he'll have a good year if he can continue to keep the ball down.

The biggest surprise of the day was outfielder Cole Garner. The former Rockies prospect had a great debut with the Yankees, hitting a double off Dontrelle Willis and launching a homerun off veteran reliever Chad Qualls.  Garner, who has played multiple outfield positions before, had hit well in the Rockies system and was considered one of the better outfield prospects in their system.  It never came to fruition and he was non-tendered back in December.  Garner is not going to win a roster spot in camp this spring but if he sticks around at AAA he might find himself on the team if there is an injury or two in the Yankees outfield. Marc Gustafson was very high on Garner just three years ago, calling him a "scout's dream."  "He can hit a baseball as far as anyone. He opens your eyes."  Perhaps he'll open some eyes in camp this spring.

Curtis Granderson looked ready to tear through 2012 with a repeat of his monster 2011 season where he hit 41 homeruns. Granderson's swing mechanics look fine and that is the only real concern.  Kevin Long's mechanical tweaks have stayed with him and he's able to generate bat speed without all of the excessive motion from previous years.  Blessed with strong wrists, Granderson easily accelerates his bat through the zone and can hit both inside and outside pitches out of the park.  When he moved out of Comerica Park, this was something most scouts expected and he really locked in last year.  As a scout it's hard to find many flaws with Granderson.  His strikeouts aren't significant because he takes plenty of walks and hits for so much power.  Granderson is a complete player and it would be hard pressed to find another two slot hitter with the talent that he brings to the table.

Cesar Cabral was the pitcher I paid the most attention to today, mainly because he has a strong shot of winning that last roster spot.  As a Rule 5 draft pick he has the right to either return to the Red Sox or declare himself a free agent at the end of spring if the Yankees choose not to give him the final roster spot. He looked pretty decent against lefties today and that's basically all he would be required to do as a second lefty in the Yankees bullpen.  I'd like to see more, especially concerning his strike zone command.  He displayed a good changeup today that had downward depth and deception to lefties and that's an excellent starting point this spring.  We will see much more of Cabral and he's going to get a long look before the Yankees make their decision.

Talking with numerous baseball scouts, it’s become a unanimously accepted fact that the Yankees picked up a terrific young arm in Jose Campos when they traded Jesus Montero to the Seattle Mariners. Campos, 19, is full of promise at a young age. Last season, Campos started 14 games with the A- Everett Aquasox and went 5-5 with a 2.32 ERA. At just 19, posting a 6.54 SO/BB ratio was a highly impressive feat. He struck out 85 hitters and walked just 13 in 81.1 innings of action, pitching to a 0.971 WHIP. One Mariners scout told me, “he was a bulldog on the mound and pitched more like a AAA arm with experience.”

Campos has been a pitcher since he was just eight years old and knew it was his ticket to the majors at a young age.  The same scout said, “he is constantly working on improvements, most 19 year olds would not have this level of immaturity but this kid wants to be in the majors and be another Felix Hernandez. Heck, even Felix wasn’t this mature at his age.”  Campos, who struggled with his control in the Venezuela Summer League, slowly fine-tuned his control and honed his fastball command to pitch a marvelous 2011 season in A- ball.

His scouting report is full of positive remarks.  His upside is a higher than former Yankee Hector Noesi who also went in the deal for Michael Pineda.   Campos, at 6’4” and 195 pounds, has a very projectable frame that has few worries attached to it.  That’s one of the bigger concerns with Manny Banuelos, on whether his 5'11" frame will hinder his durability on the mound as a major league starter.  Campos fastball sits at 92 to 95 MPH and he has a tendency to rev up the MPH when he needs a big out.   A scout who covers the PCL told me, “his fastball is already a plus pitch because he has so much feel on the pitch.  Locates it with precision and it will only improve.”   Hitters struggle to make good barrel to ball contact on his fastball as it’s described as “heavy.”  A heavy fastball with good command is an excellent starting point for any young pitcher.

Campos slider has the potential to be a plus pitch, sitting anywhere from 83 to 85MPH.  The late movement on the slider keeps hitters off balance and it’s his best swing and miss pitch.  His slider is very deceptive and utilizes this pitch in good situations.  His curveball and changeup are a bit rawer; however both pitches are described by scouts as having “plus potential.”  His curveball has a 12-6 break (72-75 MPH) but the movement isn’t very deceptive as of now for it to have success in the majors.  However, with his plus fastball and good slider, his curveball will still be a good change of pace offering to keep hitters guessing.  Expect Campos to hone the art of the curve over the next few years of development.   He keeps his arm slot well and that will help him develop his pitches in the Yankees system.

From the scouting tapes, Campos has markedly improved his landing and his mechanics since he was drafted.   His landing was a major concern and caused most of his control issues but that’s been corrected.    He gets a good stride to home along with simple, repeatable mechanics.  He has “easy” velocity and there aren’t any concerns in regard to hyper abduction or inverted W arm positioning (which everyone is so gravely worried about nowadays).  The concerns regarding mechanics are very few and for the most part his mechanics are good enough to be left alone.

My overall report on Campos is that he is a highly talented right hander that instantly slots into the top 10 prospects within the Yankees farm system.  One scout said it best, “he may be better than Pineda, Noesi or Montero.”

On a relatively quiet Friday evening,  Brian Cashman decided to shake up the Yankee universe.   Seemingly out of nowhere came a trade,  on in which the Yankees sent their stud catching prospect Jesus Montero and starter Hector Noesi to the Seattle Mariners for 22 year old starter Michael Pineda and 18 year old prospect Jose Campos.  The Yankees were searching all winter for an upgrade to their rotation which looked pretty suspect past their ace C.C. Sabathia  and finally pulled the trigger on a deal that looks like a win for both teams involved.

Jesus Montero showed a lot of promise after his September call up.  He hit .328 with 4HR and 12 RBI’s in the stretch run and gave the Yankees a lot of reason to be excited about his potential at the plate.  His offense was never in doubt but Joe Girardi and the Yankees were still not high on his catching ability.   In a sense, the Yankees viewed him as a DH and a backup catcher for the next few years while current starter Russell Martin stayed back there to handle the majority of the catching duties.   With catching prospects Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and others developing in the minors, the Yankees dealt from a position of strength and acquired a golden arm in Pineda to fill a glaring weakness.

Pineda had a solid rookie campaign, continuing his success from the minor leagues with the Mariners.  He slotted in well behind Felix Hernandez and the rookie showed very little discomfort pitching behind one of the better aces in the majors.   With the Yankees, Pineda also profiles as the number two behind Sabathia.  Pineda pitched to a 3.74 ERA, although his FIP (3.42) and xFIP (3.53) were lower suggesting his fielding may have impacted his ERA to some extent.   He also had 9.11 K/9 and just 2.89 BB/9, which defines his deadly combination of power and command.

As a scout, I am very high on Pineda.  His 6’7” build projects well for a starter and he repeats his delivery well, as evident by the good command.   He is a monster on the mound and his size and stuff is certainly an intimidating factor. His delivery has a few flaws but nothing to get very concerned about (everyone has a few issues).   If everything falls into place, he will be an elite starter in the MLB for a long time and that’s precisely what the Yankees saw when they agreed to the deal.    The Yankees wanted a good return for Montero and they finally found a match,  one in which they maintained their depth in the farm system and also improve their team for this year and the future.   As a big Montero fan,  it will be disappointing to see him go but this deal was a win for the Yankees in the term that they have a young dominant starter that’s cost controlled till 2017.  That is a huge luxury to have on a team with a goal to reduce payroll by 2014 and now they do not have to overpay to upgrade their rotation during the season or spend hundreds of millions on a starter in free agency (even though Hamels would look awfully good in a Yankee uniform).

I will have another post on the other two pitchers in the deal soon, namely Jose Campos and Hector Noesi.

The Yu Darvish situation at this moment is a rocky road.  For the team with the winning bid there will remain serious hurdles to sign the right hander to a deal within 30 days.   First and foremost, the Nippon Ham Fighters want a significant bid and they may choose to reject an offer in the $20 million dollar range.  Major league teams have shown hesitation all winter regarding Darvish and the overall feeling is that teams will bid low in the 20 to 30 million dollar range so that they will be in a better position to negotiate with Darvish.

Rumors of Darvish planning on requesting a $20 mil/year deal isn’t true (Sponichi rumors are usually wrong) but there seems to be a feeling that they will ask for an above $10 mil/year salary.  Currently the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers remain favorites to win the bid but the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, and Oakland A’s have also expressed interest.   By all assumptions, the bid will likely come down to the Yankees and Rangers, even though both general managers have come out and said they will be cautious in their approach.  The biggest question remains on whether Yankees GM Brian Cashman is bluffing on his interest.  A few scouts believe Cashman is interested but won’t blow the other competitors out of the water in the bidding process.   That seems to be the most reasonable thought process on the Yankees interest in the righty.

The Boston Red Sox will also take a cautious approach, and some reports of them not even bidding are highly unreliable at this point.  Red Sox GM Ben Cherington seems to want to play it safe on Darvish and has come out and said that he isn’t “sure the timing of the offseason puts (them) in a position to be the most aggressive team.” The Red Sox prefer to stay below the luxury tax threshold and throwing millions in the direction of an unproven product might put a real hurt in their wallets for a significant period of time.   The Red Sox are familiar with the unforgiving nature of big Japanese signings, spending over $100 million dollars on Daisuke Matsuzaka who turned out to be a very insignificant pitcher with the team.

Will the Yankees play it safe and seek to trade for a starter rather than spend a lot of money on Darvish? It remains to be seen.  The team has spent a ton of money scouting the Japanese phenom and it’s hard to believe that they would avoid the bidding process entirely.  The Yankees also need to improve a rotation, especially after the Anaheim Angels rebolstered an already formidable rotation with C.J. Wilson and added Albert Pujols on a 10 year deal.  The Yankees definitely have question marks after C.C. Sabathia and Cashman has said his focus this offseason will be on pitching.  It simply can’t be just Freddy Garcia.  Or can it?